Commentary

And so, a new year begins. And with it, a sense of hope and new beginnings, as well as a realization that most of the concerns that worried us in 2018 remain with us today.

Most of us have flown many times in our lives and know that bouts of turbulence are normal. And, even though we rationally know that the plane has been engineered to withstand turbulence far in excess of what we will ever likely experience, it is still an unnerving experience.

With Thanksgiving upon us, we wanted to reach out to you, first and foremost, to express our thanks for the privilege of working with you, and to wish you a heartfelt Happy Thanksgiving.

According to a recent Tweet, the economy and stock market are the best they have ever been, in the history of America, and deserve an A Plus.  What else do you need to know?

The bumpy ride in financial markets that marked the first quarter, continued into the second. A combination of mixed economic data, rising interest rates and a steady flow of political drama contributed to investor unease and ongoing volatility.

As long as the global economic backdrop remains strong, we think the current corrective phase in the markets will run its course and markets will eventually head higher before marking the peak for the current economic cycle.

In light of the steep decline in the markets over the past few days, followed by today’s dramatic rebound, we recognize that the wild market swings and volatility can be unnerving.

2017 was a year marked by the strange juxtaposition between an improving global economy and buoyant financial markets, and a distressing geopolitical landscape.

“Given all the crazy stuff that is going on in the world, how come the stock market keeps going higher and higher and how long can this last?”

We are in the late innings of an extended economic growth cycle, marked by high valuation levels and growing complacency about risk.