Commentary

In light of the steep decline in the markets over the past few days, followed by today’s dramatic rebound, we recognize that the wild market swings and volatility can be unnerving.

2017 was a year marked by the strange juxtaposition between an improving global economy and buoyant financial markets, and a distressing geopolitical landscape.

“Given all the crazy stuff that is going on in the world, how come the stock market keeps going higher and higher and how long can this last?”

We are in the late innings of an extended economic growth cycle, marked by high valuation levels and growing complacency about risk.

In a recent interview, Warren Buffet cautioned investors that it can be a big mistake to mix politics with investment decisions. We tend to agree.

A Trump presidency, combined with other changes in the world creates a greater range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative.

It has been a year of unexpected turns and twists, where conventional expectations have been turned on end.

“Leopards break into the temple and drink the sacrificial chalices dry; this occurs repeatedly, again and again; finally it can be reckoned upon beforehand and becomes part of the ceremony.”

Pollsters and pundits probably rank below economists and weathermen in their ability to foretell the future.

We do not think that things are as bad as they seem on TV or are represented by presidential candidates.